Let's make predictions

[clr]

Where do you think guitars will be in the near future?

Not to offend some of the older members, but will guitars made at this time be worth more 30-40 years down the line?

Taken into the account that better "tone" comes with age, logic says "No" unless guitar making gets deeper down the proverbial hole. And In my poor hindsight, I find that not very possible.

[newey]

So you want us to polish up the ol' crystal ball? Mine's as cloudy as the next guy's.

First, you say "in the near future" and then ask about 30-40 years ahead- two different things entirely. "In the near future" I would take to mean much less than 30-40 years out.

The only observations I would make are these: First, my g-g-generation, those pesky baby boomers, has bid up the prices of anything related to our childhood to outrageous levels, more out of a sense of nostalgia than because of any intrinsic worth of the items themselves. That's equally true if we're talking about comic books, baseball cards, barbie dolls, or a '63 Strat. A vintage Strat may be somewhat better than a new one, but not enough better so as to justify a ten-fold price difference.

That trend won't continue, IMHO, just as a matter of statistics- the generations after ours are smaller in number (until you get to the present day), meaning fewer collectors to bid up prices on scarce objects.

There's also the supply side of the equation- during the '80s and '90's many more guitars were made, and the lower priced ones from that era are unlikely to ever be worth a lot since there's so many. Quality and rarity will always command a price, however.

And as to your statement that tone improves with age, that nugget is going to generate some argument here. I'll agree if we're talking about a Martin Acoustic- but a solid body electric, not so much . .

[clr]

Ah, I forgot the huge weight of the baby boomers on the population.

Also, just to clarify "near". Near is subjective towards what it is being compared against. We can say the sun is closer than pluto, but 92 million isn't "close" at all comparatively to the grocery store.

[Ripper]

Good question clr....

I believe that the quality instruments of today...You know who they are.
Will sound even better in 50 years. Those who say they only like the sound of the old Strats, or the old Les Pauls....well how can you compare? I think electric instruments change over time. The magnets mellow, the wood settles and the pores tighten up. Guitars with nitro finishes change colour. ambers turn to gold, and reds fade and sometimes even disappear. Those are just a few colours, but I think you know what I mean.

Its no secret that at the beginning of the Les Paul run back in 1952, there was little consistency to the electonics. Pup wiring was all over the place that why there was such a difference from one Paul to the next. Thats why when someone says they love the early LP's, and theyre sooooo much better, I roll my eyes.
Some were great....some were not.

Now there is more consistency to pickup wiring. Its done with proper counters so you know youll be in the ball park at least with the sound youre looking for.

Im using Gibson and Fender as my examples, but you guys know who the big players are.

I guess to sum it all up..Those nice guitars that we own right now, if we take care of them IMHO...will be much sought after in 30 or so years.....something like myself!....ill be *GULP* 74!

[jkemmery]

I have to say, I really don't buy in to that "older sounds better" crap. I also don't buy that any "aging" of the wood has any real effect on the tone of a solid body electric guitar. The magnets in the pickups weaken, and that, by and large, is responsible for the change in tone. Plenty of boutique winders (such as VooDoo) are making "vintage" (read, weak) pickups that pretty much duplicate the sound of those 40 to 50 y/o pups. Slap some in a brand new strat or LP, and bingo, instant vintage tone.

That being said, I do believe that at some point, some of the genuine early, quality, "superstrat" heavy metal type guitars, such as Ibanez or ESP will become collectible. When they start commanding ridiculous prices, people will pine away about how much better they sound and that they don't make them like they used to, etc ...

[Runewalker]

"near future" is a little vague. 5 years, 10? 30?

Ignoring the collectors, and focusing on players --- you see the future in the present. The tension between the future and the past, i.e. analogue vs. digital, will move guitars, intermediaries (floor/rack boxes) and amps towards digital, as almost every other product you can buy. Try replacing or upgrading the carburator in you Honda. Thats right, there aint no carburator.

look to Variax, modelers, DSP amps to see the future. These things continue to evolve and get better. Sure they were clunky and boxy in early iterations, but digital programing of differences continues to improve, and each generation is better. Computing powerer is always increasing, and discreet modeling of the physics of sound becomes ever more granular. The move towards small, smaller, smallest in amps will continue and digital does that better than analogue.

At some point the religion of wood will be overturned. Composites and modern materials can be made to emulate the qualities of wood sought in tone, and more uniformly manufactured to consistently create the tone profile desired, with greater stability.

If you want the real future of guitars and guitarist look at Guitar Hero. A company will evolve that game technology to real instrument levels and use the device as a synth controller. No more wood, magnets or strings.

These denizens of the future will look at you very strangely as you wax poetic about alnico and nitro, asking: "what the he|| is Nitro?"

Brave New World indeed.

[RJB]

Maybe?


I think there will always vibrating strings over a fretboard. There is still a long way to get to pick dynamics, double stop bends, harmonics, etc.... A stringed instrument is one of the most expressive instruments around. There are and will be big changes in music reproduction, but for the foreseeable future (rest of my life) guitars will still be predominantly wood.

The original question, will todays guitars become collectible? Some yes. There is always going to be a nostalgia demand, regardless of the generation. My youngest son (16) still drags out the Super Nintendo once in a while to play some old favorites. Which ones will be the collectibles? The "Players". Look at the value of 80's era Japanese Fenders. Try finding a non parted Mexican made "Deluxe" series "Players Strat" on E-bay.

The workhorse gear that is "road worthy", that will get used, abused and discarded when broken/worn out. That is what will eventually have some value

[wolf]

Well, if it comes to making predictions, there's no greater source of prognostication than Nostradamus.

The Old Ones will be usurped by the new.
They will rule where Leo and Paul once ruled supreme.
The Hero will convince many to follow a new path.
The Ax will blaze a new and Varied trail.

Wow pretty good for something written 500 years ago huh?
Yes, this might seem as if it is describing a colossal lutherie paradigm shift but others think it may have been referring to the Kennedy Assassination, the Hindenberg Disaster, or even Dennis Kucinich dropping out of the Democratic primary.

[ux4484]

I don't know, this is a hard one. In the early-mid 80's, who would have predicted that 2K era Epiphone's would surpass the build quality of Gibson's from that time, the same goes for current Squire's compared to (American) Fenders from the late 70's. (It's such a joke about the current '70's style Fenders, because ounce for ounce and $ for $ the current ones are eons beyond the originals). I feel the low end will keep coming up. This site alone is proof in that, look how many "low end" guitars have been made into serious tour worthy instruments with just a little elbow grease and this community's support.
Another indication of this is in the Epiphone Dot and new Gretch value hollow bodies, these are seriously good guitars for a fraction of the cost of the rigs they're modeled from.
That's another thing, I don't think we'll ever see a solid body electric that converts the masses of hollow body players to give up their axes. I mean, almost every violinist still wants a Stradivarius, right?
On the opposite end of the spectrum, this means that the high end must also improve in quality and features to make it worth it to pay exponentially more $$$ for those rigs. The Vg strat and Gibson Robot LP are perfect examples of this (funny that they do the tuning changes as opposite as is conceptually possible). At what point will this go too far? who can tell, but it'll be a good show.

The real hard one to predict is amps. I would hazard a guess that there have been more NEW tube model amps released in the last decade than in the 20 years that proceeded it. Yes, some of that is fueled by nostalgia, but also by availability (supply and demand). If tubes were still available at your local drug store (ala the 1970's and early 80's) for cheap, would tube amps be in as high demand as they currently are? Or would everyone be moving on to the latest and "greatest" tech available (ala Bass amps)?

I think alot of this improving tech has to be made more simple for the average player.
NOTE: Members of Gnutz are not your "average" players; most want an interface that is simple, intuitive, and fast to use (not that Gnutz dont' want that too, but they will sacrifice it to get their features). Many current devices with gobs of bells and whistles are not that (which is why individual pedals mounted on boards are seen in concert setups more often than a single controller, they are easier to operate on the fly, even if you've never seen it before, you can easily use it (STOMP, it WORKS!, turn dials randomly to get sound). Mfg's seem more concerned with maintaining their interfaces "look & feel" (i.e. Digitech, Boss, or Roland), What's been left by the wayside is usability. Roland seems to be learning this faster than some others with their current V line of instruments. They've really gone to bat to try to make the interface for the instrument as close to the "typical" interface for said instrument instead of just plopping their "standard" interface on top of different devices (i.e. Line 6 & Tascam).

[flateric]

We will see a huge step towards integration of digital processing effects within the guitar, which will dispense with floor and rack-mounted units.
We will see a greater divergance of models cramming every hi-tech thing in as they can and at the other end of the spectrum increasingly priced basic vintage replicas with nothing but artificially aged pickups and bridges and worn fretboards and signature models.
We will see a huge reduction of European and US manufacturing, driving up the price of boutique specials and limited editions tenfold as the Chinese industry gears up once price and quality is accepted, and this will cause the eventual decay of the remaining western industries until the trade balance is finally evened.
maybe.

[kuzi16]

i don't think that in the next 40 or so years we will still be using wood. i think there will be a push for bamboo and plastics. i know that BC rich already uses plastic on its transparent models.
who knows? maybe carbon fiber and a filler. the tone of wood may not always be in style.

i think pickups will tend toward the style of the Lace Alumitone pickups for the analog player and more and more people will go digital for electric guitars.

whats gunna be the classic 40 years from now? ESP. it almost already is. Kirk Hammit loves em. Metallica is well on their way to being a classic band. (if they can call it quits while (arguably) still ahead)
Washburn... but only the dimebag style.

and of course: PARKER.
the parker fly is one amazing guitar. if you guys can ever get your hands on one DO IT. I would do sad shameful things to own one. I just cant bring myself to spend the four grand to buy one.

[clr]

Who else feels like Will Smith in I, Robot

[mlrpa]

(Pssst... pass the windex so I can clean the crystal ball please.)

OK, today, we see some companies trying out new and non-tradition materials. (30 years ago, who would have used basswood?) And I foresee that trend to continue.

And then the backlash. "Vintage tone. Vintage feel." is the catch phrase of 90% of todays manufactors. And I see no end to it. Even in the digital world of effects. Look at the Amplitude line. Completely digital, trying to make the sounds of analog. (Even the hiss and hum, with the occassional "pop" of turning the stompbox on.)

The guitar world is moving fast foreward, trying to stay in the past.

[jkemmery]

Guitarists have become traditionalists. If I were to guess, I'd say it's because popular music, which used to be rife with guitars, is now very much less so. Or, possibly, this is because the market is driven by the boomers, with thier large numbers and deep pockets. However, this trend definitely won't last forever ... and it's probably going to be turned around because of the popularity of Guitar Hero and Rock Band games (have you noticed that Guitar Hero is Gibson branded, and Rock Band is Fender branded?) Lots of 6-10 year olds, who are at this very moment mastering "Through the Fire and Flames" on Guitar Hero 3 will ineveitably become interested in playing an actual guitar, but this is a technologically ingrained generation, comfortable with using complex electro-mechanical interfaces, unlike boomers who freak out if confronted with more than 2 switches and 4 knobs. I give the current "vintage" preoccupation another 10 years at best before it has run it's course, and guitarists will be looking to further advances.

[jkemmery]

kuzi16 said:

and of course: PARKER.
the parker fly is one amazing guitar. ....

But it's SO damned UGLY!

[Runewalker]

jkemmery said:

kuzi16 said:

and of course: PARKER.
the parker fly is one amazing guitar. ....

But it's SO damned UGLY!

You d@mn skippy JK.

Whtz up with that scythe handle thing?

I have a couple of friends who have them and it appears to be some sort of cult. That aside, many of the brand's innovations may be embraced should there actually be guitarists who play strings in the future. After being used to the heft of a man's guitar, Lester Paul, the Parker is like playing air. But the thing plays well and sound pretty good, although more chicken than beef.

Composites, carbon fiber, may be be too expensive for Chinese production, but some adaptation could be made. I have friend who came back proudly touting his conterfeit strat, and when I opened up the hood, it was made of .... masonite. So plastising masonte is only a few $$$ away from plastisicing carbon fiber.

I would have to read more carefully but I think someone mentioned the Roland style midi interface bonded to guitars today, and Fender has one as well. Yes strings are expresive because you can gently stroke them, pound the he|| out of them or bend them to the moon. But strings are fundamentally poor midi switches. Roland has to turn somesaults to digitize the signal. So the future of guitars probably belongs to the games and Guitar Hero, since those are proper (electronic, not mecanical) switch actuator and controllers.

It is interesting to hear the whole run up of vintage guitar prices and the associations of Boomers reliving the fantasies of their youth, but with far higher disposable income. The generation before did it to hot rods, and that market peaked. Probably the same for vintage guitars. Makes me think I should sell them now. I held on to them because of the sound and the years of affection. But, I play the guitars I build, and frankly like them better, with modern pups, and advance switching. I get on the old horses and they feel fine, but limited in tonal variations. I am spoiled after unlocking the secret inherent sounds in every conventional instrument.

But I am not the market place.